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Another Good Year!

Paul Blackburn looks into his crystal ball to forecast the potential house price movement for 2015.
2015 promises to be another intriguing year for property markets. Whether or not a ‘new normal’ prevails, a welcome stability has returned to the market. Blenheim Park Estates forecasts a return to more normal conditions, with much of the economy and the property market returning to a more sustainable and stable pattern of long term growth. Regional markets are beginning to pick up, reflecting increased economic confidence, and although substantial challenges or uncertainties remain particularly in the retail sector and in the political outlook – we think the UK property market is set for a promising and prosperous 2015.
The great uncertainty for 2015 is the evolution of interest rates. The current trend in long-term interest rates, even in the UK, is down rather than up. Rates will increase at some stage, although expectations on the date of the first increase are being continually pushed further into the future. Few forecasters now expect a move before June 2015. When the increase in base rates does come, it will be the first since July 2007 – and will herald a longer-term change in monetary conditions to come.

Paul Blackburn, Director of Blenheim Park Estates expects house prices to rise by around 5% on average across the UK, with Sheffield and Derbyshire seeing anywhere between 4 and 7% rises for 2015. Having watched London’s house prices experience the strongest price growth, they will now be the most affected and Paul is predicting prices to flat line in the capital in contrast to rest of the UK, who will see the benefit of steady growth all be it slower than the market has enjoyed in previous years.

The UK average five-year total is reported to be 19.3 per cent, which represents a period of calm after the boom and bust of the past decade. “We have experienced a wealth of inward investment over the last couple of years and anticipate another healthy year for the Yorkshire property market, although we are unlikely to repeat the same levels as we witnessed in 2014. One reason for this is the political uncertainty around the May election which could lead to a pause in market activity.” Paul added.

Paul has always valued the importance of looking back before you go forward and now looking to the future market he believes “It is now becoming clear that the current conditions in the UK housing market are unlikely to be a temporary phenomenon. The market conditions we called 'normality' ten years ago will not be resumed anytime soon. The structure of the housing market has changed, if not permanently then at least for the foreseeable future”.

“The Bank of England doesn’t want house prices to come down. They know that house prices play a big part in Britain’s economic recovery. And that’s why they’re doing everything in their power to keep the house market buoyant”.

“They would like housing growth to continue and with having the power to manipulate Britain’s interest rates as they please, they might be able to do just that.” Paul commented. House prices have become a national obsession but they are also a source of angst for many families. While homeowners are keen for their greatest asset to rise in value and secure their financial future, their children are priced out of the market.

There are likely to be significant variations across The UK as a whole and within each County. There will be specific areas of Sheffield and Derbyshire that will out perform the others with the consensus being that the more desirable areas will out perform the less attractive postcodes.

Although the outlook continues to look good, this is not a time to rest on your laurel’s, and at Blenheim Park Estates we can not emphasise the importance of effectively presenting your property in order to achieve the best possible asking price and in doing so exceeding market expectations. “Of course your crystal ball is as good as mine!” Paul added “But looking back on previous trends and taking into account expert predictions from across the industry. We are all set and looking forward to another good year!”

Paul Blackburn,
Managing Director, Blenheim Park Estates